Adam Marchakitus

Decision-oriented benchmarking of AI weather models for subseasonal monsoon onset forecasts in India

Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus, Mayank Gupta et autres

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) have enabled AI models to potentially outperform traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models while requiring only a fraction of the computational resources. However, many AI forecast evaluation studies have compared models using global metrics …

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Operational benchmarking of AI and NWP models for false monsoon onset prediction in India

Mayank Gupta, Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus et autres

False monsoon onsets involve an early-season wet spell followed by a prolonged dry spell, often resulting in agricultural losses when sowing is initiated during premature rains and farmers are unprepared for the dry conditions. Despite its importance for risk reduction for hundreds …

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Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making

Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus, Katherine M. Kowal et autres

Hundreds of millions of farmers make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty about future weather. Forecasts can inform these decisions, but available choices and their risks and benefits vary between farmers. We introduce a decision-theory framework for designing useful forecasts in settings where the …

Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making

Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus, Katherine M. Kowal et autres

Hundreds of millions of farmers make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty about future weather. Forecasts can inform these decisions, but available choices and their risks and benefits vary between farmers. We introduce a decision-theory framework for designing useful forecasts in settings where the …

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Dataset: Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making

Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus, Katherine Kowal et autres

Subsetted AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) forecast datasets for daily precipitation over the Indian region. Daily precipitation is provided on a 2° × 2° spatial grid, obtained via conservative regridding from each model’s native resolution. Daily precipitation from the Meteorological Department (IMD) at …

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Dataset: Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making

Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus, Katherine Kowal et autres

Subsetted AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) forecast datasets for daily precipitation over the Indian region. Daily precipitation is provided on a 2° × 2° spatial grid, obtained via conservative regridding from each model’s native resolution. Daily precipitation from the Meteorological Department (IMD) at …

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Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon

Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus, Mayank Gupta et autres

Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold promise as transformational tools for helping low- and middle-income populations make decisions in the …

Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon

Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus, Mayank Gupta et autres

Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold promise as transformational tools for helping low- and middle-income populations make decisions in the …

Dataset: Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon

Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus, Mayank Gupta et autres

Subsetted AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast datasets for daily precipitation and the Webster–Yang Index over the Indian region. Daily precipitation is provided on a 4° × 4° spatial grid, obtained via conservative regridding from each model’s native …

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Dataset: Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon

Rajat Masiwal, Colin Aitken, Adam Marchakitus, Mayank Gupta et autres

Subsetted AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast datasets for daily precipitation and the Webster–Yang Index over the Indian region. Daily precipitation is provided on a 4° × 4° spatial grid, obtained via conservative regridding from each model’s native …

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On the robustness of AI model forecast skill and initial condition uncertainty of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Osamu Miyawaki, Cuiyi Fei, Siyu Li, Dhruvit Patel et autres

AI weather models are becoming valuable tools for predicting the weather. While AI models’ general forecasts are known to be skillful, their forecast skill of extreme events is not fully understood. The 2021 Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatwave is a good case study …

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