Martine J. Barons

Structural Refinement of Bayesian Networks for Efficient Model Parameterisation

Kieran Drury, Martine J. Barons, Jim Q. Smith

Many Bayesian network modelling applications suffer from the issue of data scarcity. Hence the use of expert judgement often becomes necessary to determine the parameters of the conditional probability tables (CPTs) throughout the network. There are usually a prohibitively large number of …

Surjective Independence of Causal Influences for Local Bayesian Network Structures

Kieran Drury, Martine J. Barons, Jim Q. Smith

The very expressiveness of Bayesian networks can introduce fresh challenges due to the large number of relationships they often model. In many domains, it is thus often essential to supplement any available data with elicited expert judgements. This in turn leads to …

Reporting Standards for Bayesian Network Modelling

Martine J. Barons, Anca M. Hanea, Steven Mascaro, Owen Woodberry

Reproducibility is a key measure of the veracity of a modelling result or finding. In other research areas, notably in medicine, reproducibility is supported by mandating the inclusion of an agreed set of details into every research publication, facilitating systematic reviews, transparency …

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Risk, Uncertainty, Decision and Stakeholders - Best Practice for Sustainable Outcomes

Martine J. Barons

Quantifying risk and uncertainty and decision modelling have a great deal in common, and in particular that they are focussed on a main stakeholder or decision-making panel who stands to benefit from the utility they have defined.In every case, to achieve the …

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Beyond Net Zero: Developing a Methodology for Multi-attribute Sustainability of Food Systems

Kristian Romano, Martine J. Barons, Linda Nichols, Stacia Stetkiewicz

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Integrating human behaviour and epidemiological modelling: unlocking the remaining challenges

Edward M. Hill, Matthew Ryan, David Haw, MichaelF. Lynch et autres

This paper is part of a special issue on Behavioural Epidemiology.Historically, responses to health-related emergencies (whether public health, veterinary health or plant health related) have exposed the deficiencies of mathematical models to incorporate data-driven and/or theoretical knowledge on outbreak behavioural dynamics. Interdisciplinary …

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A Decision Support System for Sustainable Agriculture and Food Loss Reduction under Uncertain Agricultural Policy Frameworks

Martine J. Barons, Lael Walsh, Edward E. Salakpi, Linda Nichols

The EU Green Deal requires the reduction in pesticides and fertilisers in food crop production, whilst the sustainable development goals require reductions in food loss and food waste. In a complex and interacting system like the food system, these goals are difficult …

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Online training courses on Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE)

Ullrika Sahlin, Martine J. Barons, Fergus Bolger, Abigail Colson et autres

This report summarises the training courses delivered under the contract OC/EFSA/AMU/2021/02 EKE: “Develop and conduct online training courses on Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE)”. The objective of the courses was to develop and conduct online training courses on applying the methodology described in …

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Where the bee sucks: a dynamic Bayesian network approach to decision support for pollinator abundance strategies

Martine J. Barons, Aditi Shenvi

Abstract For policymakers wishing to make evidence-based decisions, one of the challenges is how to combine the relevant information and evidence in a coherent and defensible manner in order to formulate and evaluate candidate policies. Policymakers often need to rely on experts …

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Bayesian Network support for Contamination of Honey in Kenya

Bronson Eran’Ogwa, Martine J. Barons, Linda Nichols, Anastasiandi Maria

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Where the Bee Sucks -- A Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach to Decision Support for Pollinator Abundance Strategies

Martine J. Barons, Aditi Shenvi

For policymakers wishing to make evidence-based decisions, one of the challenges is how to combine the relevant information and evidence in a coherent and defensible manner in order to formulate and evaluate candidate policies. Policymakers often need to rely on experts with …

Communicating Climate Risk: A Toolkit

Jo Lindsay Walton, Polina Levontin, Martine J. Barons, Mark Workman et autres

The Communicating Climate Risk toolkit draws together best practice on the effective communication of climate information from across STEM, social sciences, and arts and humanities. It provides users with insights, recommendations, and tools for all forms of climate-related communication and decision-making, and …

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