Robert N. Collins

Evaluating the Credibility of Human and AI Forecasters: Receivers Discriminate Performance More Finely for Humans

Robert N. Collins, David R. Mandel

Decision-makers in high-stakes forecasting domains are increasingly asked to weigh probabilistic judgments from human experts alongside those from artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Whether source attribution alters how forecasts are received has been largely unexamined. Three accounts make competing predictions. Algorithm aversion and …

Evaluating the Credibility of Human and AI Forecasters: Receivers Discriminate Performance More Finely for Humans

David R. Mandel, Robert N. Collins

Decision-makers in high-stakes forecasting domains are increasingly asked to weigh probabilistic judgments from human experts alongside those from artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Whether source attribution alters how forecasts are received has been largely unexamined. Three accounts make competing predictions. Algorithm aversion and …

Perceived credibility of forecasts: effects of probability format, probability level, and forecast accuracy

David R. Mandel, Robert N. Collins

Poster presented by Mandel, D. R. at SJDM 2019 in Montreal

Judging My-side versus Thy-side: Meta-Forecasting Accuracy Predicts Forecasting Accuracy in the Political Domain

Pearlyn Ng, Alexander C. Walker, Robert N. Collins, Jonathan A. Fugelsang et autres

Forecasting research has capitalized on performance-related individual difference measures to improve forecasting accuracy by indicating who is likely a better forecaster, but few studies have examined how socially-relevant factors influence forecasting accuracy. In two experiments (N = 2,921), we examined how accurately …

Meta-Forecasting Accuracy Predicts Forecasting Accuracy in the Political Domain

Alexander C. Walker, David R. Mandel, Robert N. Collins, Pearlyn Ng

Everyone I Don’t Like Is Biased: Affective Evaluations and the Bias Blind Spot

Alexander C. Walker, Robert N. Collins, Heather Walker, Jonathan A. Fugelsang et autres

People commonly exhibit a bias blind spot (BBS), judging themselves as less susceptible to bias than the "average other." However, less is known about how people attribute bias to familiar others who evoke strong affect. We examined whether attributions of bias are …

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Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot

Alexander C. Walker, Robert N. Collins, Heather Walker, Jonathan A. Fugelsang et autres

People commonly exhibit a bias blind spot (BBS), judging themselves as less susceptible to bias than the “average other.” However, less is known about how people attribute bias to familiar others who evoke strong affect. We examined whether attributions of bias are …

Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot

Alexander C. Walker, Robert N. Collins, Heather Walker, Jonathan A. Fugelsang et autres

People commonly exhibit a bias blind spot (BBS), judging themselves as less susceptible to bias than the “average other.” However, less is known about how people attribute bias to familiar others who evoke strong affect. We examined whether attributions of bias are …

us, ca (code pays fourni par la source)

The wisdom of the coherent: Improving correspondence with coherence-weighted aggregation.

Robert N. Collins, David R. Mandel, Christopher W. Karvetski, Charley M. Wu et autres

Verbal and numeric probabilities differentially shape decisions

Robert N. Collins, David R. Mandel, Brooke A. MacLeod

Experts often communicate probabilities verbally (e.g., unlikely) rather than numerically (e.g., 25% chance). Although criticism has focused on the vagueness of verbal probabilities, less attention has been given to the potential unintended, biasing effects of verbal probabilities in communicating probabilities to decision-makers. …

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Performance-Weighted Aggregation: Ferreting Out Wisdom Within the Crowd

Robert N. Collins, David R. Mandel, David V. Budescu

This is a pre-print of a chapter intended for publication in the book "JUDGMENT IN PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS" (Ed. Matthias Seifert, Ph.D.). The chapter represents a primer and review of various performance-weighted aggregation techniques, including: history-based weighting methods, disposition-based weighting methods, and coherence-based …

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Igor Grossmann, Amanda Rotella, Cendri A. Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi et autres

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political …

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