Retrofitting fiscal policies to reduce the double burden of malnutrition in Peru: A system dynamics modelling study
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Le résumé fourni par la source
BACKGROUND: Peru faces a double burden of malnutrition, characterised by the co-existence of overnutrition and undernutrition. Although several fiscal policies have been implemented to address nutrition challenges, these have been designed and implemented separately, limiting their potential for synergistic impact. This paper investigates the potential impact of retrofitting unhealthy food and beverage taxation for 'double-duty' action by allocating revenues towards welfare transfers and fruit and vegetable subsidies on overweight and stunting in Peru. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system dynamics model to simulate overweight and stunting in children and adults of reproductive age, using secondary data sources and published effect estimates. We modelled several fiscal policy scenarios, informed by WHO recommendations and Peru's policy landscape. We performed several tests to build confidence in the model. Fiscal policy scenarios can have beneficial effects on overweight compared to business-as-usual, mainly through the impact of additional unhealthy food and beverage taxes, which would reduce cumulative person-years lived with adult overweight between 2024 and 2040 by -58.6 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI] [-77.7, -37.9]) million, mainly among the richest. Reinvesting tax revenue to increase the amount of cash offered through Peru's existing conditional cash transfer could reduce cumulative person-years lived with child stunting by up to 876 thousand (95% UI [-1,139, -567]) by 2040, with 82% of these being among the poorest. This study relies on several assumptions regarding policy impacts and responses and does not incorporate cost-effectiveness analysis due to its exclusion of older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Retrofitting unhealthy food and beverage taxation to reallocate revenue towards targeted welfare programmes, such as cash transfers, has substantial potential for 'double-duty' impacts on overnutrition and undernutrition in Peru.
Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.
Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Retrofitting fiscal policies to reduce the double burden of malnutrition in Peru: A system dynamics modelling study
- Date Crossref
- 13/08/2026
- Éditeur
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Imperial College London pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Universidade Nova de Lisboa pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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University of Technology Sydney pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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The University of Sydney pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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American University of Beirut pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Public Health Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Faculty of Public Health and Administration pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Faculty of Medicine and Health Brain and Mind Centre pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Centro de Investigación en Salud Materna e Infantil pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral y Sostenible pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
Imperial College London, Universidade Nova de Lisboa et Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, avec 9 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.