Investigating the Demographic Foundation of Fertility: Temporal Trends in the Female Population of Reproductive Age in Greece, 1956–2024

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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate long-term temporal trends in the size and age structure of the population of women of reproductive age (WRA) in Greece. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on the estimated mid-year WRA population (15-44 years) in Greece were obtained from the Hellenic Statistical Authority for the period 1956-2024. For each year, the percentage distribution of the WRA population across five-year age groups was calculated. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis, and annual percent changes (APCs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated. RESULTS: The WRA population in Greece fluctuated without a significant overall trend between 1956 and 1974, reaching 2,026,378 in 1968 and declining to 1,883,459 in 1974. Subsequently, it increased by 25% to a historic peak of 2,353,200 in 2000, with significant upward trends during 1974-1987 (APC = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.1 to 1.4) and 1987-1995 (APC = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.3 to 2.0). Since 2000, the WRA population has declined by 28%, reaching a historic low of 1,701,390 in 2024. The decline was modest during 2000-2010 (APC = -0.5, 95% CI: -0.5 to -0.4) but accelerated thereafter, with the WRA population decreasing by 24% between 2010 and 2024 at an almost exponential annual rate of 2.0%. Age-specific analysis revealed progressive aging of the WRA population. The modal age group shifted from 15-19 years during 1975-1988 to 40-44 years since 2010, highlighting a marked shift toward older reproductive ages. CONCLUSIONS: The WRA population in Greece entered a period of marked decline after reaching a historic peak in 2000, with an almost exponential decrease observed after 2010. Greece lost nearly one-quarter of its female population of childbearing age between 2010 and 2024. This demographic contraction was accompanied by pronounced aging of the WRA population, developments that are likely to substantially constrain the future annual number of births in the country.

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