Impact of partial or complete replacement of meat with fish on nutrient intakes of UK adults: A dietary modelling study

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Consumption of red and processed meat makes an important contribution to protein and micronutrient intakes in UK adults (1) but can also be associated with adverse health and environmental outcomes (2) . Fish provides high-quality protein and at-risk nutrients including omega-3 fatty acids, vitamin D, B vitamins and iodine (3) , and also has a lower carbon footprint compared to red meat (3) , and thus may be a potential alternative protein food in the shift towards more sustainable dietary patterns. The implications for key nutrient intakes, however, of replacing meat with fish at a population level remain unclear. This study aimed to model the nutritional impact of partial or complete replacement of meat with fish in UK adults Dietary data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (Years 9-11; 2016/17-2018/19) (n=1912; ≥18) were analysed. A dietary model scenario was developed to simulate partial (25%, 50%, 75%) to complete (100%) replacement of meat intake with fish (including that from composite dishes). Average daily intakes of protein (g), omega-3 (g), vitamins D (µg), B6 (mg), B12 (µg), selenium (µg), iron (mg) and iodine (µg) were identified as targeted nutrients. Diet modelling was conducted using Dadiet© (Dazult, V.24.09). Modelled diet scenarios were compared with current consumption (baseline) for targeted nutrients using ANOVA, with post hoc tests (SPSS, v.31) All targeted nutrient intakes showed incremental changes from baseline across the levels of meat-to-fish substitution. Protein and vitamin B6 intakes each declined marginally, but significantly, from 72±23 to 65±22 g/d (−9%; p<0.001) and from 1.7±0.9 to 1.6±0.8 mg/d (−6%; p=0.001), respectively, from baseline to 100% substitution of meat-to-fish. In contrast, simulated intakes of all other nutrients increased by 4-64% from baseline to 100% meat-to-fish substitution: omega-3 (2.0±1.1 to 2.6±1.2 g/d, +30%, p<0.001); vitamin D (3.0±2.3 to 4.4±2.6 µg/d, +47%, p<0.001); vitamin B12 (5.0±3.9 to 8.2±4.7 µg/d, +64%, p<0.001); selenium (47±22 to 65±29 µg/d, +38%, p<0.001); iron (9.9±3.7 to 10.3±3.7, +4%, p=0.014) and iodine (155±102 to 196±107 µg/d, +26%, p<0.001). Notably, the significant improvements in simulated intakes of omega-3, vitamin B12, vitamin D, selenium and iodine were observed with only a 25% meat-to-fish substitution, and increased incrementally across each modelling scenario to 100% replacement. Based on current consumption patterns among UK adults, replacing as little as 25% of total meat intake with fish has the potential to improve nutrient intakes, particularly those of current public health concern (such as vitamins D, B12 and iodine). Translating this into simple consumer messaging, e.g. ‘swap 1-2 meat-based meals for fish every week’ could be an effective strategy to help consumers move towards a healthier, more sustainable diet. Future research is warranted to explore similar modelling scenarios in at-risk sub-groups, including women of childbearing age and older adults.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.