Integrating enriched case data from national laboratory testing with population-based case-control analyses: a novel statistical likelihood-ratio methodology for PS4 applied to 325,345 breast cancer cases and 671,006 controls

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Background: For many evidence criteria within v3.0 of the ACMG/AMP guidelines, methodologies have been developed to empower their use outside categorical evidence strengths. However, no such methodology has been established for case-control data (PS4). With the release of large-scale unselected case-control datasets and expansion of nationally-collected laboratory datasets enriched for pathogenic variant carriers, there is potential to combine datasets across ascertainment contexts in a more quantitative manner using novel likelihood ratio tools. Methods: Using our published PS4-LR-Calculator, we calculated a combined log likelihood ratio (PS4-LLR) across five datasets (three unselected, and two enriched), and estimated enrichment of pathogenic variants in clinically-ascertained laboratory data using truncating variant prevalence. Results: Data were combined for 10,694 missense variants from 325,345 female breast cancer patients and 671,006 controls of Western European ancestry for five breast cancer susceptibility genes (BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, CHEK2). A combined LLR was produced for 4,563 missense variants; 922 variants received evidence towards pathogenicity (LLR≥ 1), and 3,188 received evidence towards benignity (LLR≤ -1). Conclusion: This flexible, variant-level methodology combines nationally-collected ‘enriched’ datasets with unselected case-control cohorts, expanding the available information for case-control analysis, boosting power for existing analyses and enabling further exploration of variants in atypical penetrance scenarios.

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