Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Early Prediction of Heat Stroke Induced Cardiorenal Syndrome: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Background Heat stroke (HS) is a life‐threatening condition, and its prognosis is severely compromised when accompanied by cardiorenal syndrome (CRS). Early identification of HS‐induced CRS is essential for enhancing clinical outcomes. Objective To develop and validate a nomogram for early prediction of HS‐induced CRS. Methods This retrospective cohort study involved 277 HS patients from eight hospitals in Sichuan Province, China. Key clinical demographics, vital signs, and routine laboratory parameters on admission were systematically analyzed. Independent predictors of HS‐induced CRS were identified using multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram was constructed to facilitate early prediction of this life‐threatening complication. Results In this study of 277 HS patients, 68 developed CRS, with an incidence rate as high as 24.5%. Among the non‐CRS group, 77 died during hospitalization, compared to 54 patients in the CRS group, representing a significant difference (36.8% vs. 79.4%, p < 0.001). The CRS group faced a 2.2‐fold higher mortality risk (risk ratio [RR] = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.78–2.62) and a 6.6‐fold increase in the odds of death compared to non‐CRS patients (odds ratio [OR] = 6.61, 95% CI: 3.45–12.68). Independent predictors of HS‐induced CRS were identified as HR, ANC, DB, Mb, and INR on admission. The nomogram exhibited strong predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.813 (95% CI, 0.76–0.87). Both the calibration curve and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the model’s strong predictive performance. Conclusion The developed nomogram effectively predicts the risk of HS‐induced CRS using accessible clinical indicators (INR, ANC, HR, DB, and Mb). This approach is crucial for enhancing patient outcomes and optimizing the utilization of emergency medical resources, particularly in regions with high HS incidence and limited healthcare capacities, though future prospective validation is warranted.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Early Prediction of Heat Stroke Induced Cardiorenal Syndrome: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study
- Date Crossref
- 01/10/2025
- Éditeur
- Elsevier BV
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Sichuan University Department of Emergency Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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West China Hospital of Sichuan University pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Dazhou Central Hospital pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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China National Nuclear Corporation pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Mianyang Central Hospital Department of Emergency Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Dazhou Integrated TCM and Western Medicine Hospital Department of Emergency Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College Department of Emergency Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
Department of Emergency Medicine — Sichuan University, West China Hospital of Sichuan University et Dazhou Central Hospital, avec 4 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.