Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Specific Mortality Risk After Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: Studies Based on SEER Database and External Validation Cohorts
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Introduction Rectal cancer, characterized by a high global incidence rate, is a significant malignancy. This study aimed to develop a competing risk model utilizing the SEER database to estimate the risk of cancer-specific mortality in patients diagnosed with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods This research employed a retrospective cohort design, selecting patients diagnosed with LARC (stages III-IV) from the SEER database spanning 2010 to 2015. An external validation cohort comprising 203 patients was identified from Tianjin People’s Hospital. A competing risk model was developed to estimate the likelihood of cancer-specific mortality among the patients. The predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the C-statistic at various time points, while calibration was evaluated using a calibration curve. Results A total of 7608 patients with LARC were analyzed, and they were randomly allocated to either the training cohort ( N = 5700) or the validation cohort ( N = 1908). A competing risk model was developed to predict cancer-specific survival in these patients. Increased risk of non-cancer death was observed among older patients, black patients, and single patients. In the training cohort, the model demonstrated area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.795, 0.78, and 0.783 for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year predictions, respectively; in the validation cohort, the AUC values were 0.791, 0.792, and 0.779 for the same time points, reflecting good discriminative ability. The C-statistic was 0.775 for the training set and 0.794 for the validation set, confirming the model’s strong predictive performance for cause-specific mortality. Conclusion With high accuracy and reliability, the model aids physicians and patients in formulating clinical decisions and follow-up strategies. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) was inadequate as a standalone predictor of LARC-specific mortality.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Specific Mortality Risk After Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: Studies Based on SEER Database and External Validation Cohorts
- Date Crossref
- 01/09/2025
- Éditeur
- SAGE Publications
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Yueyang Hospital pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Nankai University Department of Anorectum pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Tianjin First Center Hospital pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Tianjin Nankai Hospital pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Tianjin Medical University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Intergrative Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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College of Chemistry State Key Laboratory of Medicinal Chemical Biology pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine — Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine et Yueyang Hospital, avec 6 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.