Predicting Short-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Events in the Elderly Population: A Retrospective Study in Shanghai, China
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represents a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, including China. Accurate prediction of CVD risk and implementation of preventive measures are critical. This study aimed to develop a short-term risk prediction model for CVD events among individuals aged ≥60 years in Shanghai, China. Methods: Stratified random sampling recruited elderly individuals. Retrospective data (2016-2022) were analyzed using Lasso-Cox regression, followed by a multivariable Cox regression model. The risk scoring was visualized through a nomogram, and the model performance was assessed using calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: A total of 9,636 individuals aged ≥60 years were included. The Lasso-Cox regression analysis showed male gender (HR=1.482), older age (HR=1.035), higher body mass index (HR=1.015), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR=0.992), higher systolic blood pressure (HR=1.009), lower diastolic blood pressure (HR=0.982), higher fasting plasma glucose (HR=1.068), hypertension (HR=1.904), diabetes (HR=1.128), and lipid-lowering medication (HR=1.384) were related to higher CVD risk. The C-index in the training and validation data was 0.642 and 0.623, respectively. Calibration plots indicated good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. Conclusion: This short-term predictive model for CVD events among the elderly population exhibits good accuracy but moderate discriminative ability. More studies are warranted to investigate predictors (gender, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, and lipid-lowering medication) of CVD incidence for the development of preventive measures.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Predicting Short-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Events in the Elderly Population: A Retrospective Study in Shanghai, China
- Date Crossref
- 01/06/2025
- Éditeur
- Informa UK Limited
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Tongji University Department of General Practice pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Shanghai Jiao Tong University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Shanghai Municipal Center For Disease Control Prevention pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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School of Public Health Department of Social Medicine and Health Management pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Clinical Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Department of NCD Surveillance pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Department of Vital Statistics pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Division of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases and Injury pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
Department of General Practice — Tongji University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University et Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences, avec 6 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.