Age-specific 3-year risk of cervical precancer among HPV-positive women attending screening: a post hoc analysis from a retrospective cohort

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This post hoc analysis explored the age-specific risk of cervical precancer in women infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), using data from a cohort of 7263 participants aged 21-71years undergoing cervical screening. We found a slightly varied prevalence of high-risk HPV (hrHPV) in different age, with highest in women under 30 years old (9.28% for 13 hrHPVs tested by HC2-HPV, 10.82% for 14 hrHPVs tested by DH3-HPV). However, the prevalence of cytology abnormalities peaked in age 30-39 years (~ 3.6%). A total of 5840 women completed 3-year follow-up. Among them, 558 were positive for HC2 assay and 583 were positive for DH3-HPV at baseline. Of note, the 3-year cumulative risks for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) or grade 3+ (CIN3+) in women infected with high-risk HPV did not increase with age but declined (e.g., 41.67%, 27.78%, 26.42%, 15.98%, and 18% for CIN2 + risk in HC2-positive women at year 25-29, year 30-39, year 40-49, year 50-59, and year 60-71, respectively). If stratified by the median age, younger women (25-48 years) positive with HC2-HPV at baseline had a higher 3-year CIN2+/CIN3 + risk than older women (49-71 years) [26.55% (95%CI = 21.8-31.92%) vs. 18.28% (95%CI = 14.11-23.34%), P = 0.019; 15.52% (95%CI = 11.81-20.14%) vs. 9.7% (95%CI = 6.71-13.83%), P = 0.039]. Similarly, for women positive with DH3-HPV at baseline, younger group had a higher 3-year CIN2+/CIN3 + risk than older group [26.44% (95%CI = 21.73-31.75%) vs. 17.01% (95%CI = 13.11-21.78%), P = 0.006; 15.25% (95%CI = 11.6-19.8%) vs. 9.03% (95%CI = 6.24-12.9%), P = 0.021]. These findings indicate the potential value of age-specific risk assessment in cervical cancer screening.

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