Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract Avian influenza A(H5N1) poses a public health risk due to its pandemic potential should the virus mutate to become human-to-human transmissible. To date, reported influenza A(H5N1) human cases have typically occurred in the lower respiratory tract with a high case fatality rate. There is prior evidence of some influenza A(H5N1) strains being a small number of amino acid mutations away from achieving droplet transmissibility, possibly allowing them to be spread between humans. We present a mechanistic within-host influenza A(H5N1) infection model, novel for its explicit consideration of the biological differences between the upper and lower respiratory tracts. We then estimate a distribution of viral lifespans and effective replication rates in human H5N1 influenza cases. By combining our within-host model with a viral mutation model, we determine the probability of an infected individual generating a droplet transmissible strain of influenza A(H5N1) through mutation. For three mutations, we found a peak probability of approximately 10 −3 that a human case of H5N1 influenza produces at least one virion during the infectious period. Our findings provide insights into the risk of differing infectious pathways of influenza A(H5N1) (namely avian-human vs avian-mammal-human routes), demonstrating the three-mutation pathway being a cause of concern in human cases.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans
- Date Crossref
- 01/09/2024
- Éditeur
- openRxiv
- Type
- posted-content
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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University of Warwick EPSRC & MRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Mathematics for Real-World Systems pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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University of Liverpool Civic Health Innovation Labs and Institute of Population Health pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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UK Health Security Agency Analytics and Surveillance pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, EPSRC & MRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Mathematics for Real-World Systems — University of Warwick et Civic Health Innovation Labs and Institute of Population Health — University of Liverpool, avec 3 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.