Glioblastoma patients’ survival and its relevant risk factors during the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 pandemic: real-world cohort study in the USA and China

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BACKGROUND: Although the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted potential impact on patients with glioblastomas (GBMs), it remains unclear whether the survival and its related risk factors of GBM patients would be altered or not during the period spanning from pre-COVID-19 to post-COVID-19 pandemic era. This study aimed to clarify the important issues above. METHODS: Two observational cohorts were utilized, including the nationwide American cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) and the Chinese glioblastoma cohort (CGC) at our institution during 2018-2020. Demographics, tumour features, treatment regimens and clinical outcomes were collected. Cox regression model, competing risk model, and subgroup and sensitivity analysis were used to dynamically estimate the survival and its relevant risk factors over different diagnosis years from the pre-COVID-19 (2018 and 2019) to post-COVID-19 (2020) pandemic. Causal mediation analysis was further adopted to explore the potential relationship between risk factors and mortality. RESULTS: This study included 11321 GBM cases in SEER and 226 GBM patients in CGC, respectively. Instead of the diagnostic years of 2018-2020, the prognostic risk factors, such as advanced age, bilateral tumour and absence of comprehensive therapy (surgery combined with chemoradiotherapy), were identified to persistently affect GBM survival independently during the period from 2018 to 2020 in the SEER cohort (all P < 0.05). In CGC, lack of comprehensive therapy for GBM patients were restated as survival risk factors during the same timeframe. Causal mediation analysis showed that the effect of comprehensive therapy on all-cause mortality played a determinant role (direct effect value -0.227, 95% CI -0.248 to -0.207), which was partially mediated by age (9.11%) rather than tumour laterality. CONCLUSIONS: As the timeframe shifted from pre-COVID-19 to post-COVID-19 pandemic, survival of GBM patients remained stable, yet advanced age, bilateral tumours, and passive treatment continuingly impacted GBM survival. It is necessary to optimize the comprehensive treatment for GBM patients even in the post-pandemic era.

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