The role of 18F−FDG PET in predicting the pathological response and prognosis to unresectable HCC patients treated with lenvatinib and PD-1 inhibitors as a conversion therapy

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Purpose To investigate the diagnostic value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG PET), as an imaging biomarker, for predicting pathological response and prognosis of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with Lenvatinib and programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) inhibitors as a conversion therapy. Methods A total of 28 unresectable HCC patients with BCLC stage B or C were treated with Lenvatinib and PD-1 inhibitors before surgery. The 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were acquired before pre- (scan-1) and post-conversion therapy (scan-2). The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), TLR (tumor-to-normal liver standardized uptake value ratio), and the percentages of post-treatment changes in metabolic parameters (ΔSUVmax [%] and ΔTLR [%]) were calculated. Major pathological response (MPR) was identified based on the residual viable tumor in the resected primary tumor specimen (≤10%). Differences in the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) stratified by ΔTLR were examined by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results 11 (11/28, 39.3%) patients were considered as MPR responders and 17 (17/28, 60.7%) patients as non-MPR responders after conversion therapy. ΔSUVmax (-70.0 [-78.8, -48.8] vs. -21.7 [-38.8, 5.7], respectively; P<0.001) and ΔTLR (-67.6 [-78.1, -56.8] vs. -18.6 [-27.9, 4.0], respectively; P<0.001) were reduced in the responder group than those in the non-responder group. According to the results of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, ΔTLR showed an excellent predictive value for the MPR of primary HCC lesions (area under curve=0.989, with the optimal diagnostic threshold of -46.15). When using ΔTLR of -21.36% as a threshold, patients with ΔTLR-based metabolic response had superior PFS (log-rank test, P=0.001) and OS (log-rank test, P=0.016) compared with those without ΔTLR-based metabolic response. Conclusion 18F-FDG PET is a valuable tool for predicting pathological response and prognosis of unresectable HCC patients treated by Lenvatinib combined with PD-1 as a conversion therapy.

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