Christopher D. Roberts

Multi-decadal high-resolution historical simulations with the ECMWF global atmosphere model

Matthias Aengenheyster, Christopher D. Roberts, Razvan Aguridan, Matthew J. Griffith et autres

This paper describes an ensemble of global atmosphere reference simulations covering the period 1980 to 2023 produced with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The resulting dataset consists of 6-hourly three-dimensional global outputs from higher- and …

de, gb, sk (code pays fourni par la source)

Ensemble reliability and the signal‐to‐noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

Christopher D. Roberts, Frédéric Vitart

Abstract Ensemble forecasts sometimes exhibit counterintuitive statistical properties, such that the correlation between ensemble means and observations () exceeds the correlation between ensemble means and individual members (), and thus models seem to underestimate the predictability of the real world. This behaviour …

gb (code pays fourni par la source)

Comment on egusphere-2026-547

Bianca Mezzina, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Rohit Ghosh et autres

Abstract. We examine how ENSO atmospheric teleconnections are represented in a novel suite of coupled simulations with eddy-resolving ocean and high-resolution atmosphere, at an unprecedented grid spacing of ∼10 km in both components. The single-member, multi-decadal experiments have been performed under a …

gb, de, es (code pays fourni par la source)

Comment on egusphere-2026-547

Bianca Mezzina, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Rohit Ghosh et autres

Abstract. We examine how ENSO atmospheric teleconnections are represented in a novel suite of coupled simulations with eddy-resolving ocean and high-resolution atmosphere, at an unprecedented grid spacing of ∼10 km in both components. The single-member, multi-decadal experiments have been performed under a …

gb, de, es (code pays fourni par la source)

Comment on egusphere-2026-547

Bianca Mezzina, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Rohit Ghosh et autres

Abstract. We examine how ENSO atmospheric teleconnections are represented in a novel suite of coupled simulations with eddy-resolving ocean and high-resolution atmosphere, at an unprecedented grid spacing of ∼10 km in both components. The single-member, multi-decadal experiments have been performed under a …

gb, de, es (code pays fourni par la source)

ENSO teleconnections in eddy-rich climate models

Bianca Mezzina, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Rohit Ghosh et autres

The representation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) atmospheric teleconnections is investigated in a new set of multi-decadal simulations that combine an eddy-resolving ocean with a high-resolution atmosphere, both at an unprecedented horizontal resolution of ~10 km. The experiments were produced using three …

gb, de, es (code pays fourni par la source)

Ensemble-size-dependence of deep-learning post-processing methods that minimize an (un)fair score: motivating examples and a proof-of-concept solution

Christopher D. Roberts

Fair scores reward ensemble forecast members that behave like samples from the same distribution as the verifying observations. They are therefore an attractive choice as loss functions to train data-driven ensemble forecasts or post-processing methods when large training ensembles are either unavailable …

Ensemble-size-dependence of deep-learning post-processing methods that minimize an (un)fair score: motivating examples and a proof-of-concept solution

Christopher D. Roberts

Fair scores reward ensemble forecast members that behave like samples from the same distribution as the verifying observations. They are therefore an attractive choice as loss functions to train data-driven ensemble forecasts or post-processing methods when large training ensembles are either unavailable …

gb (code pays fourni par la source)

Supplementary material to "ENSO teleconnections in eddy-rich climate models"

Bianca Mezzina, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Rohit Ghosh et autres

gb, es, de (code pays fourni par la source)

ENSO teleconnections in eddy-rich climate models

Bianca Mezzina, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Rohit Ghosh et autres

Abstract. We examine how ENSO atmospheric teleconnections are represented in a novel suite of coupled simulations with eddy-resolving ocean and high-resolution atmosphere, at an unprecedented grid spacing of ∼10 km in both components. The single-member, multi-decadal experiments have been performed under a …

gb, de, es (code pays fourni par la source)

The role of the ocean in subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability and prediction

Magdalena Balmaseda, Charlotte A. DeMott, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Christopher D. Roberts et autres

gb, us (code pays fourni par la source)

Southern Annular Mode persistence and westerly jet: a reassessment using high-resolution global models

Ting‐Chen Chen, Hugues Goosse, Cécile Davrinche, Stephy Libera et autres

This study evaluates the performance of high-resolution (grid sizes of 9–28 km for the atmosphere; 5–13 km for the ocean) global simulations from the EERIE project in representing the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a leading mode of Southern Hemisphere …

be, gb, de (code pays fourni par la source)