2026
article
OpenAlex
Andrew D. Jones, Julia M. Longmate, Smitha Buddhavarapu, William Gutowski et autres
Abstract Storylines are a useful approach for understanding and preparing for impactful events. For instance, resource managers often use “design droughts” or “floods of record” to stress-test system vulnerabilities and consider alternative responses. While plausible storylines are sufficient for many applications, there …
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2026
article
OpenAlex
Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Chad W. Thackeray, Mark D. Risser et autres
Abstract A California “megaflood”—a weeks‐long cluster of storms with centuries‐long return times—would be catastrophic, yet its timing and magnitude under climate change remains uncertain. A central source of uncertainty is whether Earth System Model boundary conditions should be bias corrected before dynamical …
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2026
article
OpenAlex
Ying Dai, Peter B. Hitchcock, Flavio Lehner, Suvarna Fadnavis
Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events and soil moisture are both key sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability, raising the possibility that SSWs could enhance hydroclimate predictability through soil moisture. Yet this connection remains largely unexplored. Here we show that SSWs induce a robust dipolar …
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2026
article
OpenAlex
Graham P. Taylor, Keith W. Dixon, Liqiang Sun, Nicole Zenes et autres
Abstract This study investigates how uncertainties in high-resolution observation-based gridded datasets (OBGDs) influence downscaled climate projections in the Puget Sound region of the Pacific Northwest, United States. We compare four OBGDs [gridMET, nClimGrid, Livneh, and Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (GMFD)] with station …
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2026
dataset
OpenAlex
David Lafferty, Samantha Hartke, Ryan Sriver, Andrew J. Newman et autres
Abstract Physical climate risk assessment requires understanding how different sources of uncertainty affect hazard projections. However, the relative importance of these uncertainties can differ across end-uses. Here, we combine three state-of-the-art downscaled climate model ensembles to characterize how different uncertainties affect projections …
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2026
dataset
OpenAlex
David Lafferty, Samantha Hartke, Ryan Sriver, Andrew J. Newman et autres
Abstract Physical climate risk assessment requires understanding how different sources of uncertainty affect hazard projections. However, the relative importance of these uncertainties can differ across end-uses. Here, we combine three state-of-the-art downscaled climate model ensembles to characterize how different uncertainties affect projections …
us
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2026
article
OpenAlex
Yan‐Ning Kuo, Riley Culberg, Flavio Lehner
Abstract. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss is a main contributor to rising Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL), exhibiting decadal variability due to surface mass balance (SMB) changes. Greenhouse gases (GHG) have long been identified as a key driver of GrIS mass …
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2026
conference-abstract
OpenAlex
Vivek Srikrishnan, David C. Lafferty, Samantha H. Hartke, Ryan L. Sriver et autres
A growing number of societal actors rely on high-resolution meteorological information to understand a changing landscape of physical hazards. Within this context, accounting for uncertainty is crucial to quantify and manage risks, but can be challenging given the potential for various sources …
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2026
conference-abstract
OpenAlex
Faranak Tootoonchi, Flavio Lehner, Göran Bergkvist, Giulia Vico
In Northern Europe, climate change lengthens the growing season and increases temperatures during this period, but it also raises exposure to adverse climatic events such as reduced timely precipitation, temperatures above the optimum, and frost damage. Nonetheless, the net effect of positive …
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2026
conference-abstract
OpenAlex
Zherong Wu, Qing Zhu, Flavio Lehner, Wu Sun et autres
Terrestrial ecosystems have cumulatively sequestered 24% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 1850 and are critical for mitigating future climate change. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) remain highly uncertain in projecting future trajectories of this carbon sink capacity, hampering our …
hk, us, sg
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2026
article
OpenAlex
Christopher L. Hancock, Sylvia G. Dee, Muhammad Rezaul Haider, James Doss-Gollin et autres
Abstract The Mississippi River system drains 41% of the contiguous United States and is heavily engineered to mitigate hydrological extremes and facilitate commerce. However, future changes to water availability in the region are uncertain and may threaten the existing management systems. In …
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2026
article
OpenAlex
Ashley T. Huang, Yan‐Ning Kuo, Flavio Lehner
Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation has two warm phase flavors of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niños that exhibit seemingly distinct global teleconnections, but the limited observational sample leaves open whether and where these differences are robust. Coupled climate …
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