Sophie Nowicki

High-impact climate events and tipping dynamics: assessing scientific understanding and future challenges

Gabriele C. Hegerl, Sabina Abba Omar, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Annett Bartsch et autres

This paper is motivated by growing concern about tipping dynamics and processes that can cause abrupt, self-amplifying, and irreversible changes across the Earth system and societies. It assesses current scientific understanding of the most severe climate outcomes, and proposes ways to address …

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Uncertain ground: impact of bed topography on Antarctic Ice Sheet projections

Justine Caillet, Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki

Despite decades of effort to map bed elevation under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, significant gaps remain in this geometric boundary, controlling ice sheet flow and grounding line dynamics. The impact of such uncertainties on ice flow simulations of the Antarctic evolution, however, …

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Antarctic grounding zone and bedrock: the interplay shaping Antarctic sea-level contribution

Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi

Grounding zones have long been recognized as critical for understanding the past, present and future evolution of ice sheets. The ice mass flux through the grounding line contributes to global sea-level rise, and the freshwater flux impacts ocean salinity. This narrow zone-where …

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CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities

Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O’Rourke, Samar Minallah et autres

Abstract. The Land and Land Ice Theme in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) represents the current understanding of physical processes in land surface ecosystems, hydrology, cryosphere, and their physical interactions with other Earth system components. Simulations from Earth system …

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Data & Code for: "Emulator-expanded projections reveal structure in Antarctic sea level uncertainty"

Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox‐Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi et autres

Data and code for the submission of the manuscript: "Emulator-expanded projections reveal structure in Antarctic sea level uncertainty".

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ISEFlow: A Flow-Based Neural Network Emulator for Improved Sea Level Projections and Uncertainty Quantification

Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox‐Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi et autres

Abstract. Ice sheets are the primary contributors to global sea level rise, yet projecting their future contributions remains challenging due to the complex, nonlinear processes governing their dynamics and uncertainties in future climate scenarios. This study introduces ISEFlow, a neural network-based emulator …

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Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations

Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan Bamber, Clara Burgard et autres

Anomalous freshwater fluxes from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves are impacting the surrounding oceans, and we need to be able to account for these effects in climate model simulations over the historical period and in future projections. In …

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Comprehensive assessment of stress calculations for crevasse depths and testing with crevasse penetration as damage

Benjamin Reynolds, Sophie Nowicki, Kristin Poinar

Crevasse depth calculations with the zero stress approximation or linear elastic fracture mechanics are used in many applications, including calving laws, determination of stable cliff heights, shelf vulnerability to collapse via hydrofracture, and damage evolution in ice. The importance of improving the …

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Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections

Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook et autres

Abstract. Ocean-driven ice shelf melting is a major contributor of present and future ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Antarctic 2300 projections, sea level rise varies widely, from -0.6 to 4.4 m, highlighting …

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Supplementary material to "Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections"

Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook et autres

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Brief communication: Enabling open cryosphere research with Ghub

Joseph P. Tulenko, Sophie Goliber, Renette Jones‐Ivey, Justin Quinn et autres

We report on the infrastructure and scientific progress of the Ghub project, a scientific gateway providing an open-access online platform for cryosphere researchers to publish and share tools and datasets. Ghub is designed to reduce bottlenecks and accelerate progress in cryosphere sciences. …

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Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations

F. Denis, David R. Rounce, John Fasullo, Angelica R. Rodriguez et autres

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