Models for pulmonary lethality and morbidity after irradiation from internal and external sources

Le résumé fourni par la source

This report provides a hazard-function model for estimating the risk of death from radiation pneumonitis and/or pulmonary fibrosis following a light-water nuclear power accident. A similar model is also provided for estimating the prevalence of respiratory functional morbidity among those that survive death from acute effects. Hazard-function models for lethality and for morbidity were constructed using the cumulative hazard estimator H, which is related to the risk estimator R through the equation R = 1-exp(-H). The estimator H can be calculated using information provided in the report. The method of calculation depends on the exposure scenario. In general, the total normalized dose X for lethality or for morbidity is calculated. For lethality, X = 1 corresponds to a median lethal dose (LD/sub 50/); for morbidity, X = 1 corresponds to a median effective dose (ED/sub 50/). H is related to X by the equation H = 1n(2)X/sup V/, where V depends on the type of radiation (or radiations) involved. Contributions to X can arise from each of two main modes of exposure: (1) brief exposure of the lung, at a relatively high dose rate, to mainly external gammas, followed by (2) chronic internal alpha, and/or beta, and/or gamma irradiation of the lung. Equations are provided for calculating the contributions to X from both modes of exposure. 73 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs.

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