Analysis of the Natural Population Movement of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Context of Digital Economy Formation

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Purpose . The study aims to conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis of natural population movement of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of digital economy formation and transformation of the national statistical system. Based on official data from the National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2018–2025, a detailed analysis of the dynamics of birth rates, mortality, marriage and divorce rates at the regional level was carried out. The relevance of the study is determined by the strategic importance of demographic processes for the sustainable socio-economic development of the country and the need to improve the quality of demographic statistics in the context of digitalization. Materials and methods . The information base consists of official statistical data from the National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, UN materials within the System of National Accounts (SNA – 2008) framework, as well as data from WHO, the World Bank, UNFPA, UNECE, and OECD. The methodological toolkit includes dynamic and regional analysis, cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches to the study of demographic series, structural analysis, and as well as methods of international comparisons. The Excel and Stata software packages were used to process the data. Results . It was established that between 2018 and 2023 the Republic of Uzbekistan experienced a steady increase in the number of births - from 768,500 to 962,000 per year - followed by a moderate decline to 879,600 in 2025, indicating the country's gradual entry into the demographic transition phase. Pronounced regional differentiation was identified: the Samarkand, Kashkadarya, and Fergana regions hold leading positions. The mortality rate remains relatively low at 4.7‰ in 2025, with a noticeable peak growth during the COVID-19 pandemic (5.1‰ in 2020). Analysis of the marriage-family sphere revealed a decline in registered marriages since 2021 alongside a moderate but steady increase in the divorce rate, which nonetheless remains below the global average. It is substantiated that natural population movement significantly influences labour potential formation and labour market structure. The role of digital technologies and integrated information systems in improving the quality, completeness, and timeliness of demographic statistics is proven: since 1 June 2021, real-time electronic transfer of civil registration data has been ensured. Conclusion . The obtained results confirm the need for an integrated approach to the analysis of demographic processes, which involves the joint consideration of indexes of fertility, mortality, migration and age structure within the framework of a single analytical model. Digital transformation of statistical activity creates a qualitatively new architecture for the national statistical system and establishes the institutional foundation for data-driven governance. The implementation of Presidential Decree No. PP-75 and the “Uzbekistan - 2030” Strategy priorities sets the direction for further development of official statistics. The practical significance of the study is determined by the possibility of using the results in the development of state demographic policy, the formation of regional family support programs, as well as in improving the methodology of official statistics in accordance with the standards of the UN, UNFPA and OECD.

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