Climate Informed Dengue Prediction and Future Risk Under a Changing Monsoon Climate in Kerala, India
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract Dengue fever has emerged as a major public health threat in India, with its burden projected to rise under climate change. This study investigates the influence of climate variability on dengue incidence in Kerala, a dengue hotspot in southern India, using 14 years of climate and dengue data (2006–2019). Temperature, monsoon rainfall and its active‐break phases, relative humidity (RH), and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are identified as key climatic predictors of dengue transmission in the region. Dengue seasonality in Kerala closely follows its rainfall cycle, with cases rising in May and peaking during the southwest monsoon (June–September), reaching a maximum in June–July. To capture the nonlinear and combined relationships between climatic predictors and dengue incidence, several machine learning (ML) models were trained and evaluated, with the XGBoost regression model showing the best predictive performance ( R 2 = 0.72, Normalized Root Mean Square Error = 0.53). Locally, warmer temperatures (30.5–32.5°C) and moderate humidity (66%–79%) during the pre‐monsoon season, together with moderately high rainfall (180–450 mm/month) during the monsoon season, favor high dengue incidence. Remotely, El Niño–like conditions increase dengue incidence by shifting large‐scale circulation toward warmer and drier pre‐monsoon conditions over Kerala, while La Niña–like conditions have the opposite effect, providing about 3 months of potential predictability. Future simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models project an increase in dengue incidence by 16%–20% in the near future (2021–2040) and 46%–113% in the far future (2081–2100) under low‐to‐high emission pathways. These findings highlight the need for climate‐informed dengue early warning and future risk planning in Kerala.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Climate Informed Dengue Prediction and Future Risk Under a Changing Monsoon Climate in Kerala, India
- Date Crossref
- 01/09/2026
- Éditeur
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Ministry of Earth Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Savitribai Phule Pune University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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National AIDS Research Institute pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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University of Kerala pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Kerala University of Health Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Government Medical College pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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ICMR‐National Institute of Translational Virology and AIDS Research Pune India pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences et Savitribai Phule Pune University, avec 5 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.