Possibilité que le taux de survie annuel apparent des parulines à ailes dorées (Vermivora chrysoptera) adultes ne diffère pas selon le sexe ou la région
Le résumé fourni par la source
We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, the golden-winged warbler, using data from 19 sites across its breeding and non-breeding grounds. This species breeds in two disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.43, 95% credible interval [CRI]: 0.35–0.50) and the Appalachians regions (0.50, 95 % CRI: 0.37–0.62), as CRIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CRIs overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CRI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale.
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