Extreme winds, extreme potential: Preparing Australia's wind energy sector for a changing climate

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Abstract Wind energy is one of the integral renewable energy technologies to reduce carbon emissions and achieve net zero targets worldwide. Climate change induced variability in the future wind resources can impact energy generation, thereby posing financial and technical risks. With the upcoming onshore and offshore wind energy deployments worldwide and in Australia, understanding future changes in the wind resources and their impact on extreme energy generation is crucial for maintaining grid stability and economic feasibility. We determine future changes in extreme wind energy generation, duration and frequency using CORDEX-Australasia regional projections under RCP8.5 up to 2059. Results predict onshore wind energy generation remains unaffected by future climate change with significant regional variations in the offshore energy generation. This work develops a framework that can be applied to quantify wind energy deficit periods during planning and deployment of new wind plants, to account for additional storage to suffice intermittent generation periods.

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