A Life Cycle–Based and LEAP-Informed Approach to Demand-Side Carbon Neutrality Strategies: A Case Study of China’s Buildings in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

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Abstract As climate change becomes an increasingly pressing global challenge, policymakers and energy practitioners are prioritizing low-carbon development in the building sector. Achieving carbon neutrality in buildings is a key component of China’s national climate strategy, particularly in high-density urban regions such as the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). However, regional carbon emission patterns in China’s building sector remain insufficiently characterized, and a definitive pathway to carbon neutrality has yet to be established. To address this gap, this study applies a bottom-up, scenario-based modeling approach to quantify carbon dioxide emissions from the building sector at the regional scale. An integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed to explore potential carbon neutrality pathways for buildings in the GBA. The LCA framework evaluates the environmental impacts across all life cycle phases—from material production and transportation to end-of-life disposal. The LEAP model is used to simulate emissions under three distinct scenarios: baseline, carbon reduction, and collaborative. Results indicate that the building sector in the GBA holds considerable carbon mitigation potential. However, when cities are evaluated independently, their building emissions are projected to exceed the carbon neutrality target by 2060. Therefore, a coordinated regional approach is essential, supported by integrated policy design, technological innovation, and collaborative governance mechanisms. This study provides actionable insights for local governments, urban energy planners, and building sector stakeholders. It presents a data-driven roadmap to guide the low-carbon transformation of the built environment in alignment with China’s 2060 carbon neutrality objective.