Impact of Tahiti Lime Trade Composition and Market Diversi-fication on Peru's Economic Growth, 2010–2024

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This study examined the relationship between the composition of Tahiti lime foreign trade and Peru's economic growth from 2010 to 2024. A quantitative, applied, nonexperimental, longitudinal design was used, and an ordinary least squares model was estimated using annual series from official sources and specialized databases. Real gross domestic product was the dependent variable, while export value, import value, export-market concentration, the net export index, revealed comparative advantage, and the number of exporting firms were included as explanatory variables. The model explained 94.39% of the variation in real GDP. Positive associations were reported for exports, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, the net export index, revealed comparative advantage, and the size of the exporting-firm base, whereas imports showed a negative association. Additionally, finite-state Markov chain models were estimated to evaluate transition dynamics in market share and RSCA. The transition probabilities revealed high persistence in extreme states (≥0.86) and confirmed that 75% of markets remain trapped in low-scale export activity. These findings position Tahiti lime as an emerging agro-export with the potential to contribute to Peru's productive diversification. Nevertheless, the exporting-firm base expanded more rapidly than geographic market coverage, revealing persistent vulnerability arising from destination concentration. The sector therefore requires greater value addition, market diversification, postharvest innovation, improved logistics infrastructure, environmental certification, and stronger inclusion of small producers. Given the limited annual sample, the observational and static nature of the model, and evidence of possible functional-form misspecification, the estimates should be interpreted as econometric associations rather than definitive causal effects.

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