Grounding the Genuine Progress Indicator in Exergy: A First-Principles Physical Accounting Framework for Local and Macro-Scale Systems

Résumé fourni par la source

Traditional macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measure kinetic financial throughput while treating environmental degradation as an unpriced external cost. While the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) improves upon GDP by deducting defensive expenditures and environmental damage, its reliance on fiat-denominated, subjective valuation methods leaves it vulnerable to market arbitrage and greenwashing. This paper introduces a Thermodynamic Extension to GPI grounded in First and Second Law exergy physics. By defining the Exergonic Return on Investment (EROI_ex) and introducing an explicit Physical Restoration Liability (L_restoration) required to return local substrates (atmosphere, hydrological cycles, topsoil) to thermodynamic baseline equilibrium, we eliminate spatial destruction arbitrage. We establish a dynamic four-dimensional state vector—V_ESCX (Ecological, Social, Consciousness, Expansion)—and derive a mathematical boundary condition for systemic homeostasis: d/dt(S + C) >= d/dt(E + X). We validate this framework through a multi-tier microclimate simulation model linking live weather telemetry (Open-Meteo API) to individual, corporate, and national GPI metrics. This closed-loop accounting architecture proves that corporate entities operating as paper-profitable units under standard GAAP can be quantitatively exposed as net entropic sinks (-Delta), providing an auditable, physics-backed foundation for civilizational accounting. Key Contributions: Replaces Subjective Valuations with Biophysical Physics: Replaces monetary estimates with the thermodynamic cost of physical restoration (Delta H_restoration) required to return substrates to baseline equilibrium. Multi-Scale Auditing: Bridges microclimate exergy harvesting with macro-scale accounting, allowing individual, region, and corporate tiers to be governed by the same underlying equations. Systemic Homeostasis Boundary: Outlines a formal predictive mathematical threshold (Homeostasis Margin) to detect systemic collapse before it occurs. Keywords: Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), Exergonic EROI, ESCX Framework, Thermodynamic Accounting, Physical Economy, Microclimate Energy Harvesting, Carbon Sequestration