CASCADING RESOURCE RISKS IN TRANSBOUNDARY SYSTEMS UNDER CLIMATE STRESS

Résumé fourni par la source

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine represents a critical case study in modern security studies, illustrating how environmental vulnerabilities and infrastructure shocks trigger cascading, transboundary resource risks. To address the analytical fragmentation often separating biophysical data from security policy, this paper applies Climate Impact Transmission Chain (CITC) modelling to diverse datasets—including hydrological flows, soil moisture anomalies, and agricultural productivity indicators. We trace how the dam’s collapse propagated through the food–energy–water nexus across Ukraine and neighboring regions. The sudden release of water altered river hydrodynamics, disrupted irrigation in one of Europe’s premier agricultural zones, reduced cooling-water availability for energy infrastructure, and accelerated downstream salinization. Our analysis demonstrates that the Kakhovka event generated multi-sectoral stress points where infrastructure failure intersected with pre-existing climate stressors (heatwaves, droughts, and precipitation deficits), severely amplifying systemic vulnerabilities. By integrating socio-economic exposure and governance-sensitivity data, we identify how these cascading impacts extended beyond national borders to threaten Black Sea food-trade stability, transboundary river-basin management, and regional migration pressures. This paper argues that the Kakhovka catastrophe highlights the value of CITC models as an innovative tool to bridge the academia-policy divide and diagnose complex, non-linear threats. Ultimately, we leverage these findings to propose actionable resilience measures - including joint transboundary hydrological monitoring, adaptive water-allocation mechanisms, and diversified regional systems - thereby providing policy-relevant pathways to safeguard European resource security and advance the EU’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly unstable global environment. Key words: Cascading climate risks; Transboundary resource systems; Climate impact transmission chains; Food–energy–water nexus; Cross‑border climate security

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.