SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER IN RIPARIAN PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS AND PROJECTION OF A FUTURE SCENARIO FOR 2032 IN THE ILHÉUS–ITABUNA REGION, BAHIA

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This study evaluated historical land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics (1986–2024) and projected a 2032 scenario for the Riparian Permanent Preservation Areas (RPPAs) of Ilhéus–Itabuna (Bahia) using landscape metrics. Data from MapBiomas Collection 10 were used at biennial intervals and processed in QGIS to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC. The RPPAs of the Almada, Cachoeira, Fundão, and Santana rivers were delineated using buffer zones defined according to the width of the watercourses established by environmental legislation. For the 2032 projection, MOLUSCE plugin was applied, using the 2016 and 2024 maps and explanatory variables. Landscape structure was assessed using the Percentage of Landscape, Patch Density, Mean Patch Area, Greatest Patch Area, Edge Density, Effective Mesh Size, and Total Core Area metrics, allowing the identification of changes in composition, fragmentation, connectivity, and core areas. The 2032 simulation indicated a stabilization trend, with no substantial changes compared to 2024. Historically, RPPAs have undergone a clear process of anthropization: between 1986 and 2024, the Forest Formation class declined from 21.72% to 19.88% (with increased structural fragmentation), while the Urban Area class expanded from 7.26% to 11.73% due to the emergence of scattered urban clusters.

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