Case Fatality of Leptospirosis in the Dominican Republic, 2012–2026: A 14-Year National Surveillance Analysis

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Abstract Background Case fatality reflects the quality and timeliness of clinical care for leptospirosis, yet no study has examined it at a national level in the Dominican Republic (DR), where leptospirosis is endemic. We describe the case fatality rate (CFR) of leptospirosis in the DR between 2012 and 2026 and identify associations with mortality. Methods We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study, using national surveillance records merged with a discharge-condition extract via a composite key. We calculated CFR with Wilson 95% confidence intervals among 5,412 valid cases (suspected, probable, or confirmed) reported from January 2012 through June 2026. We compared proportions with Pearson’s chi-square test, assessed annual trend with ordinary least squares linear regression, and fitted multivariable logistic regression models to account for confounding. Results Overall CFR was 8.5% (460/5,412), with no significant annual trend (p=0.372). CFR was higher in men than women (p < 0.001) and increased significantly with age (p < 0.001). Male gender (OR: 1.79; 95%CI: 1.18–2.73) and pre-existing comorbidity (OR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.21– 2.57) were independent predictors of death. Clinical complications were the strongest predictor in the adjusted model (OR: 3.16; 95%CI: 2.17–4.61), attenuating the gender effect. CFR varied widely by province (2.43–22.22%) and correlated negatively with incidence at the province level (p = 0.066). Conclusions Leptospirosis case fatality is concentrated among men, people with comorbidity, and those who develop clinical complications. These national, long-term findings can help prioritize clinical and surveillance resources as extreme weather events are expected to intensify across the Caribbean.

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