Probabilistic health risk assessment of Phthalate esters (DEHP, DBP and BBP) in packaged coffee marketed in Iran: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

Résumé fourni par la source

Phthalate esters (PAEs) are ubiquitous plasticizers that can migrate from polymeric packaging into foodstuffs, particularly under elevated storage temperatures. This study quantified three priority PAEs DEHP, DBP, and BBP in thirty brands of packaged coffee marketed in Iran and characterized the associated non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks using a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation. Each sample was analyzed in triplicate by LC-MS/MS. Mean concentrations were 4.19, 0.35, and 1.90 µg kg⁻¹ for DEHP, DBP, and BBP, respectively, with DEHP the dominant congener. Follows the USEPA framework, estimated daily intake (EDI), hazard quotient (HQ), cumulative hazard index (HI), and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) were derived for five age classes (children, teenagers, youth, middle-aged, and adults) of both sexes. Across all ten subpopulations, the commodity-specific HI remained far below unity, ranging from 6.15×10⁻⁶ (male children) to 1.62×10⁻⁵ (female youth), with 95th percentile values ≤ 4.44×10⁻⁵, indicating negligible non-carcinogenic hazard. The DEHP ILCR was likewise far below the USEPA benchmark of 1×10⁻⁶, ranging from 1.63×10⁻¹⁰ (male children) to 1.17×10⁻⁹ (middle-aged females), with 95th percentile values ≤ 3.17×10⁻⁹, indicating negligible carcinogenic risk. Sensitivity analysis identified DEHP concentration ( ρ = 0.76 ) and coffee ingestion rate ( ρ = 0.57 ) as the principal drivers of exposure variance. Although the present exposure from coffee alone is acceptable, DEHP predominance warrants continued surveillance, improved packaging materials, and temperature-controlled storage.

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