Human Settlement and Water Availability at the Qa’ Shubayqa during the Terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene: Comparing Hydrological Models and Archaeological Data

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There is increasing evidence that wetland ecosystems played a key role in the transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture in southwest Asia. Yet, while they are ecologically rich, wetlands are also fragile and vulnerable to climate change and disruption by humans. Reconstructing the relationship between wetlands, human settlement and climate is therefore crucial to gain a better understanding of the emerging agro-ecological system during the Epipalaeolithic-Neolithic transition and how resilience articulated itself during this transition. Archaeological fieldwork in the Qa’ Shubayqa in northeast Jordan has demonstrated that this area supported a marshland during the terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene, which made this area attractive to Late Epipalaeolithic and Early Neolithic communities between 15,000 and 10,500 years ago. This period was marked by significant changes in human settlement patterns, economy, social organization and environment that culminated in the emergence of the first agricultural societies. To better understand how human groups reacted to and coped with changes in water availability, we compare hindcasted palaeoclimate hydrological models with archaeological data on water availability and settlement. These indicate that a substantial wetland environment could have existed at Shubayqa throughout the modelled period from 17,000 to 8000 BP and that it did exist during all attested periods of human settlement. Predicted drops in water availability are associated with periods of apparent settlement hiatus, but it remains unclear whether this means that the wetland was reduced or disappeared. Though as ever contingent on new excavations providing additional evidence, our current reconstruction of water availability and settlement at the Qa’ Shubayqa illustrates a clear but non-linear human response to climate change: prehistoric communities were able to thrive in this fragile environment during wet periods, but were not able to cope with dramatic drying, and not always quick to re-establish settlement after more favourable conditions returned.