Evaluating the Effect of China’s Pesticide Guidance Actions on Soil Ecological Risks Based on Spatiotemporal Pesticide Input Dynamics from 2001 to 2050

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Abstract A national action, titled the Zero Growth of Pesticide Use Action Plan (ZAP), was launched to tackle pesticide pollution risks by the Chinese government in 2015, leading to substantial reductions in pesticide inputs. However, the effect of such a national action on risk mitigation remains unknown. This study characterizes the spatiotemporal dynamics of pesticide inputs and risks of 146 pesticide active ingredients across China from 2001 to 2022 and provides projections up to 2050 to evaluate the efficacy of ZAP under a moderate future climate change scenario. A transition in pesticide input was observed from 2001 to 2022, revealing a redistribution of hotspots from the North China and Yangtze River basins to more widely distributed locations in southern China. Despite the overall reduction in quantities used, pesticide concentrations doubled in soils from 2001 (1.04 mg kg–1) to 2022 (2.25 mg kg–1), with pesticide residues in soils becoming more persistent. The launch of ZAP in the short term (from 2015 to 2022) decreased the applied mass of hazardous pesticides. From the long-term view, a reduction of pesticide inputs exceeding 50% is projected to be achieved with herbicide inputs continuously increasing. By mode of action, protoporphyrinogen oxidase inhibitors and photosystem I electron diverters contributed disproportionately to soil ecological risk. Consequently, a delayed risk mitigation effect was observed: the proportion of croplands at medium risk fell from 85% in 2015 to 70% in 2050. Our analysis calls for integrated measures toward precise pesticide management, including sustainable plant protection and pollution remediation.

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