Current and future habitat suitability of Moringa stenopetala (Bak.f.) Cuf. (Moringaceae) in Ethiopia under climate change: implications for agroforestry and investment planning

Résumé fourni par la source

Moringa stenopetala is an important multipurpose tree recognized for its nutritional, medicinal, and socioeconomic value. Although widely utilized by communities in southern Ethiopia, the species remains underutilized and has a relatively restricted natural distribution, occurring mainly in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on its habitat suitability is essential for supporting conservation, sustainable utilization, and agroforestry planning. This study assessed the current and future habitat suitability of Moringa stenopetala in Ethiopia using an ensemble species distribution modelling approach. Seven modelling algorithms, namely boosted regression trees, random forest, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, maximum entropy, support vector machine, and multivariate adaptive regression splines, were integrated into an ensemble model and evaluated using five-fold cross-validation. The ensemble model showed high predictive performance, with mean Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic values of 0.97 and 0.85, respectively. Precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, soil pH, and isothermality were the most influential variables determining habitat suitability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitat for M. stenopetala was estimated at 40,136.80 km2, representing approximately 3.6% of Ethiopia's total land area. Future climate projections indicated contrasting responses under different climate scenarios. Under the high emission scenario, suitable habitat was projected to decline to 28,182.45 km2, whereas under the moderate emission scenario, suitable habitat was projected to expand to 44,219.28 km2 by the 2070s. The projections also indicated a reduction in habitat suitability across parts of the southern highlands and the emergence of new suitable areas in the central lowlands, particularly within the Great Ethiopian Rift Valley. These findings provide valuable spatial information for conservation, agroforestry development, and climate-informed investment planning by identifying areas with favorable climatic conditions for M. stenopetala cultivation. Integrating the species into suitable agroforestry systems may contribute to improved food security, rural livelihoods, and sustainable land management, while successful implementation should also consider land use, management, and socioeconomic conditions.