Over a Decade of Race Dynamics in Marathon Swimming: Pacing Tipping Points Across Olympic Games (2012–2024) and World Aquatics Championships (2013–2025)

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PURPOSE: To identify the evolution of tipping points in pacing strategies between medalists (MED) and nonmedalists (NON-MED) in 10-km events of the Olympic Games (OG) and World Aquatics Championships (WC). Additionally, we characterized the temporal trends of dual participation (pool and open-water) to provide a necessary contextual framework for these competitive shifts. METHODS: Involving data from 1066 individual performances, 1-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was applied to identify relevant tipping points in swimming velocity (v) between MED and NON-MED. Dual participation rates from 4 OG (2012-2024) and 7 WC (2013-2025) editions were evaluated using quadratic regression models. RESULTS: Males MED progressively maintained higher v throughout races at the OG (2024: 1.47 m·s-1 for MED vs 1.41 m·s-1 for NON-MED) and WC (2025: 1.48 m·s-1 for MED vs 1.43 m·s-1 for NON-MED), reflecting an evolution toward sustained pacing. In women, pacing differences at the OG remained fragmented (2024: 1.31 vs 1.25 m·s-1), whereas WC data showed increasingly earlier and stronger dominance, culminating in full-race separation in 2025 (1.38 vs 1.33 m·s-1). Dual participation peaked at the 2024 OG for men (32.0%) and women (16.7%), but exhibited fluctuations and a recent decline at the WC (eg, 2025: men 5.2%, women 7.5%). CONCLUSION: Pacing strategies in elite marathon swimming have evolved, with v tipping points between MED and NON-MED shifting toward an earlier and more aggressive separation. Contextually, despite fluctuating dual-participation trends, developing physiological and tactical capacities to sustain elevated v from early stages is increasingly essential for consistent performance.

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