Scenario Planning

Résumé fourni par la source

In 1991, Peter Schwartz published a seminal book entitled The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. The book outlines a strategy called scenario planning, originally developed by Royal Dutch/Shell, which identifies multiple plausible futures—not to predict a preferred future but to provide a framework for making decisions that succeed regardless of whichever future comes to pass. Scenario planning was used to program and design a modest home for a middle-class couple in their 60s—empty nesters, still working, anticipating retirement within the next five years, with a desire to age in place. They are looking for ways to leverage the structure to generate supplemental income in retirement without compromising their quality of life. The site is a small subdivision located in Springdale, Utah, a town with approximately six hundred residents. The three-quarter-acre property is situated in a unique microclimate on the Virgin River, in the shadows of Watchman Peak, near the entrance to Zion National Park. Zion is the second most visited national park in the United States, attracting five million visitors each year from around the globe. This picturesque location presents several challenges and opportunities. The journal article will demonstrate the results of these converging forces—a modest home designed to adapt to ecological, economic, and programmatic uncertainty.