Cognitive Overcapacity: How Economies Absorban Abundance of Machine Intelligence

Le résumé fourni par la source

This concept note introduces cognitive overcapacity, or more informally a cognitive glut, as a potential economic consequence of rapid advances in artificial intelligence. Cognitive overcapacity arises when the effective capacity to produce cognitive services grows faster than final paid demand for those services. The note develops a simple framework in which an AI-driven increase in cognitive productivity can be absorbed through three main channels: demand expansion (Q↑), price compression (P↓), and labour compression (L↓). It distinguishes cognitive overcapacity from traditional inventory-based overcapacity and treats cognitive-service deflation as one possible adjustment mechanism rather than an inevitable outcome. The framework also proposes that the balance among these adjustment channels should differ systematically across industries depending on demand constraints, competition and cost pass-through, the continuing need for human involvement, and prevailing pricing models. This Version 1.0 is published as a preliminary concept note. Its purpose is to define the framework, establish initial cross-industry predictions, and provide a foundation for subsequent theoretical and empirical work on how economies absorb rapidly expanding machine intelligence.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.