Intensifying Flash Droughts Aggravate Vegetation Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Monsoon Region of China: Evidence From Resistance and Resilience Responses

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Abstract The resistance and resilience of vegetation determine its ability to maintain ecosystem functional stability under flash drought stress. However, a research framework that quantifies event‐scale response characteristics of vegetation resistance, resilience, and vulnerability remains lacking. To fill this gap, we developed a high‐temporal‐resolution framework to assess the multi‐dimensional attributes of vegetation response to flash droughts, quantifying the spatiotemporal response characteristics of vegetation resistance, resilience, and vulnerability in China from 1982 to 2019. Our analysis shows that, over the past four decades, vegetation vulnerability to flash droughts in China's monsoon regions has increased by 0.019 per year. On one hand, this is primarily due to the significantly higher average decline rate of vegetation ecosystem resistance (0.074 per year) under flash drought stress, compared to the average increase rate of its resilience (0.010 per year). On the other hand, the trade‐off relationship between vegetation ecosystem resistance and resilience has shifted, particularly in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin. In both monsoon and non‐monsoon regions, explainable machine learning models indicate that temperature is the most significant stress factor influencing vegetation resistance and recovery processes during flash drought events, with SHAP values contributing between 20% and 50% to the overall model explanation. These findings highlight the urgent need to focus on the impact of increasingly frequent flash droughts on the stability of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink functions in the context of current global warming.

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