Lessons from RespiCompass: Coordinating scenario modelling for respiratory diseases in the EU/EEA

Le résumé fourni par la source

In 2024, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) launched RespiCompass, a scenario modelling hub for infectious respiratory diseases. The hub uses an ensemble approach, whereby projections from models developed by separate groups are combined to obtain mid-to-long term scenario-based projections. RespiCompass provides outputs designed to help public health experts and authorities assess respiratory virus risks and evaluate the potential impact of interventions, including vaccination. In building RespiCompass, ECDC has convened modelling teams, disease experts, and policymakers to work together in identifying policy-relevant questions, designing scenario rounds, and interpreting multi-model outputs. Drawing on lessons from other modelling hubs, RespiCompass successfully navigated the complex challenges of its first year, fostering cross-sector collaboration and delivering timely insights for the 2024/25 respiratory virus season. This article describes RespiCompass and distils key operational, technical, and collaborative lessons to inform future initiatives; the quantitative results from the first round are reported separately. 1

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