Limited neutral and adaptive genomic divergence suggests Acropora cervicornis can be managed as a single conservation unit across its range

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Abstract Genomic signatures can provide key insight into the evolutionary history and remaining adaptive potential of threatened populations. As demographic decline erodes both diversity and the processes maintaining it, understanding how remaining variation is distributed becomes increasingly important for conserving species like the staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis , a foundational but critically endangered Caribbean reef-builder. We analyzed 46 high-coverage A. cervicornis genomes from 10 locations across the tropical western Atlantic to evaluate neutral and adaptive structure, genomic diversity, demographic history, inbreeding, and connectivity, and generated a regional haplotype reference panel for future genomic monitoring. Genome-wide analyses recovered recurring regional substructure, but differentiation was modest and partly explained by isolation-by-distance and spatial variation in effective migration. Subpopulations had similar levels of genomic diversity, shared demographic history, and limited evidence of local adaptation. These patterns support interpreting sampled Caribbean populations as a single evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) containing multiple regional management units (MUs), rather than as deeply divergent evolutionary lineages. Despite substantial retained variation and low current inbreeding, estimated contemporary effective population size was small, suggesting an increased vulnerability to the effects of drift as demographic collapse continues, especially if structure is reinforced by isolated management. Together, our findings emphasize the urgent need for interventions that preserve and enhance genomic diversity, including risk-managed assisted gene flow. Supported by the haplotype reference panel developed here, these strategies will require coordinated efforts across regional entities to conserve and restore A. cervicornis as a jointly managed, single ESU.

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