Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Hunan Province using PLUS and InVEST models

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Introduction To explore the impacts of land use changes on ecosystem carbon storage and the underlying driving mechanisms under rapid urbanization, this study takes Hunan Province as a case study. Methods By coupling the PLUS and InVEST models, we simulated land use changes and their responses in carbon storage under multiple scenarios for 2030, and employed the Geo-detector model to identify the dominant factors driving spatiotemporal differentiation. Results The results indicate that: (1) Carbon storage in Hunan Province exhibits a distinct spatial pattern of being “high in the southwest and low in the northeast.” Mountainous cities such as Huaihua and Loudi serve as major carbon sink contributors, while economically developed cities like Changsha and Yueyang face significant pressure on carbon storage; (2) Scenario simulations reveal that carbon storage is highest under the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPD) (2816.25 Tg C) and lowest under the Economic Priority Scenario (EPS) (2801.71 Tg C). The disorderly expansion of construction land is identified as the primary driver of carbon storage reduction; (3) Driving mechanism analysis demonstrates that natural factors, particularly NDVI and elevation, dominate the spatial distribution of carbon storage, and the explanatory power of dual-factor interactions is significantly stronger than that of single factors. Discussion This study concludes that while human activities are constrained by natural backgrounds, they profoundly influence the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage through land-use decisions. It is recommended to strictly delineate ecological red lines in the southwestern mountainous regions and formulate differentiated low-carbon development pathways tailored to the resource endowments of different cities in future territorial spatial planning.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.