Inverse-Probability-Weighted Kernel Estimation of Regression Derivatives Under Missing-at-Random Responses for Stationary Ergodic Processes

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This paper develops asymptotic theory for kernel estimation of density-weighted conditional functionals and regression derivatives when responses are missing at random (MAR) and the observations form a strictly stationary ergodic process. Sequential MAR and positivity identify the complete-data conditional target through an inverse-probability-weighted pseudo-response, while the fully observed covariate density and its derivatives are estimated without unnecessary response weighting. A martingale-predictable decomposition yields uniform almost-sure rates, pointwise Gaussian limits, variance expansions, studentization, and AMISE results under explicit projective/maximal, conditional-moment, conditional-density, and variance-stabilization conditions. These quantitative assumptions are additional to stationarity and ergodicity: the results are not asserted for arbitrary stationary ergodic sequences. Exact-quotient and multi-index identities transfer the primitive-estimator theory to regression derivatives, and feasible propensity estimation contributes an explicit additional remainder. Monte Carlo experiments show that stronger dependence, weak response probabilities, higher derivative order, propensity misspecification, and smoothing bias can materially degrade finite-sample performance; undersmoothing improves centring but need not eliminate coverage distortion at moderate sample sizes.

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