District-Level Analytical Dataset for Scenario-Based Potato Production and Economic Exposure to Bactericera cockerelli in Peru, 2020–2022

Le résumé fourni par la source

This dataset contains the district-level analytical data and calculations used to estimate scenario-based potato production and economic exposure associated with the emergence of the potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli, in Peru. The dataset supports the manuscript “A scenario-based assessment of potential production and economic exposure to an invasive quarantine pest using farmer surveys and temperature-driven suitability modeling: the case of the potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) in Peru.” Baseline harvested area, potato production, and mean yield were calculated at district level using average agricultural statistics for 2020–2022. The analytical domain includes 1,488 potato-producing districts across 20 departments, representing approximately 336,571 ha of harvested potato area and 5,754,423 metric tons of baseline production. Loreto, Ucayali, Madre de Dios, and Tumbes were excluded from the analytical domain because of their marginal contribution to national potato production; this exclusion was independent of the modeled thermal-suitability classification. Temperature-driven suitability modeling classified potato-growing areas into four clusters. For the scenario-based exposure assessment, manuscript Clusters 1 and 2 were defined as areas with higher temperature-driven suitability for B. cockerelli establishment and population growth. For each district, the proportion of modeled grid cells belonging to Clusters 1 and 2 was used to estimate the fraction of potato-growing area included in the reference exposure scenario. Areas corresponding to Clusters 3 and 4 were retained without a production reduction. Farmer-reported field impacts from 109 surveyed potato farmers were represented by six impact categories: no reported field impact, less than one-quarter, one-quarter, one-half, more than one-half, and entire-field impact. The observed distribution of farmers among these categories was combined with predefined reference reduction coefficients of 0%, 20%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, respectively. This produces a weighted reference reduction coefficient of 39.77% for production located within higher temperature-driven suitability areas and a corresponding remaining-production proportion of 60.23%. At district level, scenario-adjusted production was estimated by retaining baseline production outside the higher-suitability area and applying the weighted remaining-production proportion to production within the higher-suitability area. Potential production exposure was calculated as baseline production minus scenario-adjusted production. Economic exposure was calculated using a potato production value of PEN 421 per metric ton and an exchange rate of PEN 3.8 per USD, equivalent to approximately USD 110.79 per metric ton. The resulting indicators represent scenario-based production and economic exposure under explicitly defined assumptions and should not be interpreted as observed or causally attributable yield or economic losses caused by B. cockerelli. The files provide the parameters, district-level calculations, departmental aggregations, and data dictionary necessary to reproduce the national estimates reported in the associated manuscript.

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