From FullCAM to Project Reality: Integrating Spatial Evidence, Field Observation and Carbon Modelling for Defensible Land-Sector Carbon Accounting.

Résumé fourni par la source

Land-sector carbon accounting increasingly depends on the integration of spatial evidence, field observations and carbon modelling. While models such as Australia's Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) provide sophisticated frameworks for estimating carbon-stock change, the defensibility of project-level estimates also depends on how accurately landscapes, ecological conditions, management histories and observed changes are represented within the accounting system. This discussion paper examines the interface between spatial analysis, field evidence and carbon modelling in land-sector carbon projects. It argues that these components should operate as an integrated evidence system in which each constrains, tests and strengthens the others, rather than as separate technical or compliance activities. The paper introduces two complementary concepts: the TerraPulse Evidence–Decision Framework and the Evidence–Model Feedback Loop. Together, they provide a decision-led approach to selecting evidence, determining appropriate spatial, temporal and thematic resolution, targeting field investigation, evaluating observed versus expected landscape trajectories, and improving the traceability of project-level carbon decisions. Particular attention is given to materiality and proportionality of evidence. Higher-resolution or more technologically sophisticated measurement does not inherently produce higher-integrity outcomes. Additional evidence creates value where it can reduce uncertainty capable of materially changing a project decision. The paper proposes the principle “Right Evidence. Right Resolution. Right Decision.” as a practical framework for evidence-led carbon project development, monitoring, reporting and assurance. Although FullCAM and the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) Scheme provide the primary context, the underlying framework is intended to be relevant more broadly to land-sector carbon accounting and MRV.

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