Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation

Résumé fourni par la source

Abstract Active layer increase may contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem change, and increased hazards. Here, we show the results of field measurements of active-layer thickness from 156 monitoring sites in Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. Active layer thickness increased significantly at 55% and 38% of sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, at more than 90% European mountain and high elevation Asian sites, and at sites in South America, demonstrating worldwide permafrost degradation during the first quarter of this century (2000–2024). The largest changes were observed in mountain regions where active layer doubled at several sites. The smallest changes were observed at sites with thick surficial organic horizons and high ground ice content. In continuous permafrost, sites generally exhibited smaller increases compared to sites in discontinuous permafrost. Regression analysis indicates Arctic active layer changes are attributable to increasing thawing degree-days, followed by increases in total rainfall. Other permafrost regions require more sites and longer time-series to draw conclusions regarding active layer change attribution.

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