Dynamic Sustainability Synergy Assessment of Hydrogen–Solar–Geothermal Hybrid Energy Buildings: A Coupled LCA-Carbon Footprint-Emergy Modeling Approach

Résumé fourni par la source

The building sector faces an urgent challenge in balancing carbon neutrality goals with natural resource conservation. This study constructs a three-dimensional dynamic coupling model integrating Life Cycle Assessment, carbon footprint, and emergy analysis to evaluate the sustainability of a hydrogen–solar–geothermal hybrid energy system for an ecological office building in China’s hot summer and cold winter climate zone over a twenty-year horizon. The model incorporates dynamic factors including grid decarbonization, equipment efficiency degradation, and replacement cycles to overcome the systematic bias inherent in static LCA. Results reveal a significant trade-off: the hybrid system achieves a 29.8% reduction in global warming potential with a seven-year carbon payback period, yet non-renewable resource consumption doubles and resource scarcity damage increases by 173%. The carbon payback trajectory exhibits non-monotonic fluctuation, with electrolyzer replacement in year ten generating 360 tonnes of additional emissions that nearly reset the cumulative net value to zero. Multi-objective optimization identifies photovoltaic capacity as the system baseline (170–210 kW) and electrolyzer capacity as the primary regulating variable (35–62 kW), with the TOPSIS-recommended compromise solution of 200 kW photovoltaic, 50 kW electrolyzer, 30 kW fuel cell, and 32 m3 hydrogen storage achieving annual carbon emissions of 280 tonnes and a 33.3% reduction. Carbon pricing exhibits a nonlinear leverage effect with an incentive threshold of 200 RMB per tonne, substantially above China’s current 60–80 RMB per tonne level. This study concludes that while hydrogen–solar–geothermal hybrid systems offer substantial climate benefits, their comprehensive sustainability depends on proactive management of material scarcity costs, precise planning of equipment replacement cycles, and coordinated multi-level policy instruments. The findings provide methodological foundations for transitioning building carbon neutrality assessment from static LCA to dynamic coupling frameworks and from single carbon metrics to integrated carbon-resource-cost evaluations. All quantitative results presented herein are derived from this specific case study under the stated assumptions and parameter values; generalization to other building types or climate zones requires recalibration.

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