Forensic Analysis Using Audit Trails, Banking Regulations and Money Supply on Claims of Miracle Money by Pastors: Putting the Theory to Test

Le résumé fourni par la source

Claims of “miracle money” in which pastors and congregants testify that bank accounts were credited without human or system action have become common in Nigerian Pentecostal spaces. Such claims conflict with double-entry accounting, CBN regulations, and money supply mechanics. This study forensically tested these claims using audit trails, Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] rules, and economic theory. The objective was to determine whether miracle credits can survive forensic verification, and to explain why the belief persists despite regulatory constraints. The study was anchored on four integrated theories: Agency Theory, which frames pastors as agents with information advantage over congregants; Institutional Theory, which positions CBN/Banking rules as coercive structures that cannot accommodate unbacked credits; Dual Process Theory, which explains acceptance of miracles as System 1 intuition moderated by financial literacy; and Deterrence Theory, which links perceived EFCC/CBN sanctions to demand for evidence. The conceptual framework specified Audit-Trail Verifiability [ATV] as the dependent variable, influenced by theological doctrine, accounting system integrity, banking regulatory compliance, economic literacy, and legal accountability, with information asymmetry and authority bias as mediators and financial literacy and economic desperation as moderators. A pragmatic mixed-methods design was adopted. Phase 1 was a forensic multiple-case audit of 10 publicized miracle money claims between 2021–2025, selected via criterion purposive sampling. Each case was traced using redacted bank statements, NIBSS session IDs, and general ledger extracts, with chain of custody per ISO/IEC 27037:2012. Phase 2 was a cross-sectional survey of 400 respondents—160 congregants, 80 clergy, 80 accountants, 40 bankers, and 40 legal/EFCC officers—using a validated 68-item questionnaire. Phase 3 embedded an experimental vignette testing belief persistence after NIBSS debunking. Reliability ranged from α = .72 to .91. Data were analyzed with exact binomial tests, OLS and logistic regression, and PLS-SEM with 10,000 bootstraps. Forensic results showed ATV = 1 in 10/10 cases. Every credit mapped to verifiable sources: POS reversals, inward NIP transfers, overdraft activation, cash deposits by members, or loan disbursements. Zero cases had ATV = 0. Exact binomial test rejected the null that unbacked credits exist [p < .001]. Benford’s Law analysis of claimed amounts yielded Mean Absolute Deviation =.041, exceeding the.015 threshold for non-natural numbers, indicating cognitively chosen figures rather than system outputs. Survey results supported all hypotheses. Belief in miracle money decreased with accounting literacy [β = -.37, p < .001] and increased with prosperity gospel adherence [β =.48, p <.001]. Exposure to testimonies increased distrust in banks [β =.41] and misunderstanding of CBN [β =.36]. Accountants, bankers, and legal professionals were 6.34 times more likely than clergy/congregants to reject claims [p <.001]. Mediation analysis confirmed that information asymmetry and authority bias fully mediate the effect of theological doctrine on ATV, with indirect effects of -0.22 and -0.19 respectively. Moderation analysis showed financial literacy weakens the doctrine-ATV link [B = 0.14, p =.003], while economic desperation weakens the economic literacy-ATV link [B = -0.11, p =.008]. The vignette experiment showed belief dropped 20.7 points post-debunking, but only for high-literacy respondents [d = 0.71], supporting Dual-Process Theory. The study concludes that miracle money claims are forensically falsifiable and falsified. From accounting and regulatory standpoints, money cannot enter a bank account without a corresponding debit somewhere; claims to the contrary violate BOFIA 2020 and AML/CFT Regulations 2022. The persistence of belief is an agency problem driven by information asymmetry, authority bias, low financial literacy, and economic desperation, not a monetary phenomenon. Regulatory silence by CBN creates a legitimacy vacuum that allows pastoral authority to substitute for audit evidence. Recommendations are tiered. CBN should issue a circular stating that “divine deposit” is not an acceptable source of funds and mandate source disclosure for accounts featured in viral testimonies. EFCC should adopt the ATV decision tree as investigative SOP and publicize prosecutions to raise deterrence. Banks should auto-generate NIBSS receipts for customers whose accounts are publicized as miracles. Churches should implement “statement-before-stage” policies requiring redacted statements and NIBSS IDs before testimonies, with review by internal auditors. Congregants should verify credits via NIBSS session IDs and improve financial literacy. The study contributes to knowledge by: (1) integrating Agency, Institutional, Dual-Process, and Deterrence theories into a testable model of religious financial claims; (2) developing validated scales for information asymmetry, authority bias, and audit-trail verifiability; (3) providing the first NIBSS-verified dataset of miracle money cases, all with natural causes; and (4) supplying CBN/EFCC with forensic protocols to close a regulatory gap. Limitations include self-selection bias and Nigeria-specific data. Further research should test belief persistence longitudinally and replicate in Ghana and Kenya.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.