Mobility Network Analysis of the Poultry Sector in Morocco: A Tool for the Surveillance and Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Résumé fourni par la source

Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) poses a critical global threat to both the poultry industry and public health. Although Morocco currently maintains HPAI-free status, the country faces substantial risk due to its location along major migratory flyways and its extensive commercial trade networks within the poultry sector. Available data indicate that the links between live bird markets, production farms, and related facilities in the poultry sector constitute a pivotal determinant of disease epidemiology. This study aimed to analyze these movements and determine how they can influence the spread of the disease and to guide policymakers in developing effective risk-based surveillance and control strategies tailored to the local context.: A questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted across the Casablanca-Settat region, including nine provinces and 138 municipalities, to investigate the movement patterns within the poultry sector in this region. Social network analysis (SNA) was employed to construct a movement network, and findings were spatially visualized using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and analyzed through network analysis in R.: A total of 945 transport routes were recorded in 126 municipalities. Centrality measures identified three predominant network nodes exhibiting high degree and betweenness centrality values. Our findings indicate that although the network has a low density, the transmission of IAHP remains critical due to frequent bidirectional links and a heterogeneous network structure. The high concentration of movements by a few “hub” municipalities leads to an early emergence and rapid dissemination.: The identification of highly influential nodes allows veterinary authorities to prioritize and target surveillance activities toward municipalities with the greatest likelihood of disease introduction or persistence. The network’s structural connectivity suggests a theoretical potential for rapid HPAI spread, underscoring the importance of the frequent bidirectional links identified between municipalities. This protects both Morocco’s poultry industry and public health.

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