Replication Data and Code for China-associated concentrations in gold open-access publishing: growth in APC exposure and business risk across twelve publisher groups

Le résumé fourni par la source

This record contains data and code supporting work conducted on China-associated concentration exposure in commercial gold open-access publishing. The archived workbook contains OpenAlex-derived article counts and estimated list-price article processing charge (APC) exposure for twelve publisher groups over 2016–2025. The primary China-only cohort requires China to be present among the recorded authorship countries and the OpenAlex countries_distinct_count to equal one. Additional workbook sheets provide publisher and panel time series, field-level analyses, country-cohort comparisons, APC price-bucket coverage, withdrawal stress-test scenarios, publisher-reported financial comparators and triangulation against published STM figures. Estimated APC exposure is calculated as the weighted mean of positive apc_list.value_usd values returned by OpenAlex, multiplied by the exact number of priced articles. These estimates represent exposure at advertised list prices rather than realised publisher revenue: waivers, transformative agreements, institutional discounts, memberships and the geographic source of payment are not observed. Publisher attribution follows the OpenAlex host_organization_lineage recorded on 17 August 2026. The deposit contains: China_APC_exposure_data.xlsx: archived data, derived tables, source notes and documentation; make_figures.py: reproduces Figures 1–4 offline from the workbook; extract_openalex.py: reruns the principal publisher-year-country-cohort and field-level OpenAlex queries; README.txt: definitions, workbook guide, methodological limitations and reproducibility scope; metadata.json: machine-readable dataset metadata, provenance and file checksums. The extraction script does not automatically rebuild the workbook or reconstruct the financial, scenario, price-coverage or STM comparison sheets. External financial and STM values were transcribed from the sources identified in the workbook. Financial comparisons use calendar-year 2025 data for RELX, Springer Nature and Informa; Wiley uses FY2026, ending 30 April 2026, with APC estimates matched to that reporting period. Data and documentation are released under CC BY 4.0. The Python scripts are released under the MIT License.

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