Spatial Co‐Occurrence of Climate Extremes, Food Price Volatility, and Conflicts in Northern Nigeria: Implications for Geotargeting

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ABSTRACT Climate extremes and conflict risks may co‐occur in the same regions, particularly where agrifood systems are fragile, exposing vulnerable communities to multiple shocks. However, the extent to which these shocks co‐occur depends on local contextual factors. To inform the prioritization of interventions aimed at mitigating compound risks and strengthening agrifood system resilience, this paper examines where, and to what extent, climate extremes, food price volatility, and conflict events overlap, in Northern Nigeria, a region characterized by a high concentration of major agricultural markets and sufficiently rich data to support long‐panel analysis across multiple commodities. Using data from 52 retail agricultural markets between 2002 and 2023, we estimate 9680 local regressions that permutate over a breadth of variables and their combinations. In doing so, we relax the constraint on co‐occurrence allowing the measure to vary across locations to capture local specificity. Results reveal significant co‐occurrences of climate extremes (especially drought), food price volatility (especially in locally important commodities), and increased intensity of conflict in the study area. In specific hotspots, the estimated intensity of co‐occurrence is up to five times higher than in other locations, indicating a substantial within‐country heterogeneity in exposure to compound risks. Our findings suggest the need for localized evidence to guide the targeting of interventions and to identify priority locations for investigating the root cause of vulnerability to compound risks.

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