Climate-Driven Range Shifts in Useful Agave Species: Ecological Implications

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Background and Research Aims: Climate change is expected to reshape the distribution of agaves used in mezcal and tequila production. These species, adapted to semi-arid environments, are central to ecological and cultural systems in Mexico, including Agave angustifolia , A. karwinskii , A. marmorata , A. potatorum , A. cupreata , A. durangensis , and A. tequilana . Species Distribution Models (SDMs), combined with analyses of climatic space, provide a framework to anticipate changes in suitability, identify vulnerabilities, and support conservation strategies. Methods: We modeled current and future climatic suitability for mezcal and tequila agaves using SDMs and climate projections from three CMIP6 models, comparing present distributions with projections from 2021–2080 under SSP scenarios. We quantified range changes, evaluated temporal differences, and assessed persistence within each species’ climatic space. Results: Models captured current ranges and revealed variable future responses. Some species, including A. angustifolia ( Pacific group), A. karwinskii , A. marmorata , and A. potatorum , are projected to remain stable or expand. In contrast, A. angustifolia ( Central and Peninsula groups), A. cupreata , A. durangensis , and A. tequilana show consistent contractions. Climatic space analyses indicate reduced persistence for most species, with the strongest declines in A. angustifolia ( Peninsula group), A. durangensis , and A. tequilana . These results show that geographic expansion does not necessarily imply climatic persistence. Conclusion: Climate change is reshaping agave distributions, with precipitation as a key driver of vulnerability and species responses varying across taxa and groups. Implications for Conservation: Declining species such as A. tequilana , A. durangensis , and A. angustifolia ( Central and Peninsula groups) face added constraints from low genetic diversity and clonal propagation. Reducing risks will require promoting sexual reproduction, safeguarding pollinators, diversifying propagation, and conserving wild populations. Integrating climate and genetic approaches is essential to maintain resilience and sustain dependent cultural systems.

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