People living with HIV and proportion diagnosed in Aotearoa New Zealand: first published national estimates from two modelling approaches
Rattachement africain : nz, au. Niveau de preuve : code pays fourni par la source.
Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract Background Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) is a country of low HIV incidence and prevalence where men who have sex with men (MSM) are most affected, and indigenous Māori inequitably affected by late diagnosis. NZ aims for 95% of people living with HIV (PLWH) diagnosed. We estimated PLWH and proportion (%) diagnosed in 2024 using two mathematical models; the first estimate by local researchers. Methods We used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling tool and Spectrum Case Surveillance and Vital Registration model with NZ surveillance data to estimate total PLWH, proportion diagnosed, and incident acquisitions in 2024. We used both models to estimate PLWH and diagnosed proportion by gender, and the ECDC model to estimate these indicators for MSM and people with heterosexual acquisition, and for Māori. Results Overall PLWH and diagnosed proportion estimates in 2024 were similar between models: 3991 (95% CI 3849-4116) PLWH with 95% (95% CI 93-97%) diagnosed from ECDC, and 3939 (95% uncertainty bounds 3286-4508) PLWH with 96% (95% uncertainty bounds 94-98%) diagnosed from Spectrum. Estimates by gender were similar between models. The proportion of people diagnosed increased in all populations over time, but the ECDC model estimated non-significantly lower proportions of diagnosed MSM (93%, 95% CI 85-96%) compared to heterosexual people (95%, 95% CI 92-98%), and Māori (86%, 95% CI 70-96%) compared to non-Māori non-Pacific people (96%, 95% CI 94-96%). The ECDC model found a greater incidence decline from 2010, to 14 new acquisitions (95% CI 11-17, 88% decline) in 2024. Conclusions Findings suggest 95% of PLWH overall in NZ were diagnosed in 2024, meeting the UNAIDS target. Incidence had declined steadily since 2010. While our findings highlight successes of community prevention and testing initiatives, further strategies are needed for continued and equitable progress to eliminating HIV transmission.
Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.
Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- People living with HIV and proportion diagnosed in Aotearoa New Zealand: first published national estimates from two modelling approaches
- Date Crossref
- 20/08/2026
- Éditeur
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
-
University of Auckland pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
-
New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
-
Building Research Association of New Zealand pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
-
Dunedin Public Hospital pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
-
University of Otago pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
-
Monash University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
-
School of Population Health pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
-
Dunedin School of Medicine Department of Public Health pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
-
School of Translational Medicine pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
University of Auckland, New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science et Building Research Association of New Zealand, avec 6 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.